Legitimacy and Policy during Crises: Subnational COVID-19 Responses in Bolivia

Why did some Bolivian departments have more success containing COVID-19 than others? We argue that low government legitimacy hampers coordinated responses to national crises, particularly where political polarization is severe and the crisis response becomes politicized. Low legitimacy can intensify the challenges of poverty and poor infrastructure. An original dataset of daily observations on subnational coronavirus policy and cell phone mobility data, paired with administrative data on cases and deaths, suggests that political divisions influenced governors' policy implementation and citizens' compliance. In departments that opposed the president, policies were more likely to deviate from the stricter national policy while mobility and protest activity were high. In departments aligned with the president, local policy followed national policy and citizens complied with policy and quarantine restrictions for a longer period of time.

Compounding crises: Bolivia in 2020

Bolivia began 2020 in the midst of a political crisis, with an interim administration led by Jeanine Añez, who assumed power during the political crisis that ended the administration of Evo Morales in November 2019. On March 10th, the government identified Bolivia’s first COVID-19 case. The administration’s swift initial response was marred by corruption, a strained public health system, and resistance from citizens and politicians. This essay focuses on the unprecedented character of a double crisis in Bolivia: a health crisis preceded and aggravated by a political cri-sis. The crises put the Bolivian government under intense pressure. The thrice-re-scheduled presidential elections on October 18th returned the Movimiento al So-cialismo (MAS) to power with a decisive victory under the leadership of former finance minister Luis Arce Catacora and former foreign minister David Choque-huanca. We review the consequences of the year’s events on human and economic development and conclude by anticipating future challenges. © 2021, Pontificia Universidad Catolica de Chile 1. All rights reserved.